(The Economic Collapse Blog)—It looks like investors are starting to figure it out. Bad economic numbers continue to come pouring in, but so far the Federal Reserve has refused to pull the trigger on a rate cut. We have seen this story before, and it never ends well. It is often said that “he who hesitates is lost”, and in this case the Fed’s hesitation could mean a tremendous amount of economic pain during the months ahead. On Thursday, Wall Street responded to the Fed’s inaction by throwing a bit of a temper tantrum. At one point the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 744 points, and it closed the session down 494 points…
The Dow dropped 494.82 points, or 1.21%, to end at 40,347.97. At its session lows, the 30-stock index lost 744.22 points, or about 1.8%. The S&P 500 shed 1.37% to end at 5,446.68, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 2.3% to 17,194.15. The Russell 2000 index, the small-cap benchmark that has rallied lately, dropped 3%.
Many still believe that the Fed will give us a rate cut in September.
But there are others that are concerned that “the Fed may not be acting quickly enough to keep America’s job market in good shape”…
The narrative on Wall Street is shifting.
Traders have long placed their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell basically confirmed as much Wednesday.
That rate cut, expected in six weeks, was priced in to stocks, which have been rising over the past few months in hopes of a cut. Rate cuts tend to juice stocks, because they lower borrowing costs for businesses and can help boost profits.
But now, fear is starting to take hold, as concerns mount that the Fed may not be acting quickly enough to keep America’s job market in good shape.
Economist Claudia Sahm is one prominent expert that is deeply alarmed by the Fed’s lack of action.
Considering all of the troubling numbers that we have seen in recent days, she is wondering what they are waiting for…
If the Federal Reserve is starting to set the table for interest rate reductions, some parts of the market are getting impatient for dinner to be served.
“What is it they’re looking for?” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said on CNBC just after the Fed concluded its meeting Wednesday. “The bar is getting set pretty high and that really doesn’t make a lot of sense. The Fed needs to start that process back gradually to normal, which means gradually reducing interest rates.”
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is using even stronger language.
He says that the Fed is risking a recession by not making a move now…
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach also thinks the Fed is risking recession by holding a hard line on rates.
“That’s exactly what I think because I’ve been at this game for over 40 years, and it seems to happen every single time,” Gundlach said, speaking to CNBC’s Scott Wapner on “Closing Bell” on Wednesday. “All the other underlying aspects of employment data are not improving. They’re deteriorating. And so once it starts to get to that upper level, where they have to start cutting rates, it is going to be more than they think.”
Of course there are many numbers that seem to indicate that we may already be in the early stages of a new recession. For example, earlier today we learned that the ISM manufacturing index was in contraction territory once again last month…
The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing PMI registered 46.8% last month, indicating industry economic activity contracted at a faster rate when compared to June’s figure of 48.5%.
“After breaking a 16-month streak of contraction by expanding in March, the manufacturing sector has contracted the last four months,” says Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing business survey committee.
In addition, initial applications for unemployment benefits jumped to the highest level in about a year last week…
New economic data revealed that first-time applications for jobless benefits rose last week to an estimated 249,000 filings. That’s the highest tally since last August, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, continuing claims, filed by people who have received unemployment benefits for at least a week, jumped to 1.877 million. That’s the highest level since November 2021.
Sadly, a lot more layoffs are coming as thousands upon thousands of businesses get into very serious trouble all over the nation.
This week, we learned that a furniture retailer that had survived the Great Depression, the Great Recession and the COVID pandemic is closing all 380 of their stores and filing for bankruptcy…
A 120-year-old furniture chain will shutter all 380 stores after its parent company filed for bankruptcy — the latest brick-and-mortar business to buckle from high overhead costs and massive debt.
Badcock Home Furniture & More, which has stores throughout the South, announced a “going out of business” sale Tuesday.
The company was purchased last year by Conn’s, a Texas-based furniture retailer, which filed for bankruptcy last week.
After 120 years, this is how it ends.
Of course there are lots of other retailers that have also been going belly up this year…
Other furniture chains, including Bob’s Stores, Z Gallerie and Mitchell Gold + Bob Williams, filed for bankruptcy this year.
Overall, US retailers had announced the closure of almost 2,600 stores in 2024.
If the U.S. economy really is in “good shape” like the mainstream media is insisting, then why is this happening?
In my opinion, we are experiencing the leading edge of an economic storm which will greatly intensify during the second half of 2024.
And the outlook for 2025 is absolutely dismal.
So what should you do about all of this?
In the short-term, protect your assets and build up a sizable emergency fund. No matter what happens, you are going to need to have enough money to pay your bills.
In the long-term, I am entirely convinced that we are going to experience the most painful period in our entire history.
Our leaders have been making incredibly bad decisions for decades, and now we have entered a time when the consequences of those decisions will become obvious to all of us.
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
Markets should set interest rates, not the Fed.