(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten broke down Monday how the Democratic Party has no “heir apparent” for the next presidential primary season for the first time since the 1990’s.
There is currently no clear leader or preferred candidate in the early stages to potentially win the nomination in the 2028 presidential primary for the first time since 1992, Enten said. Former Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore, Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden became the party’s clear leaders throughout the 21st century by earning a favorability rating of over 25% in national polls.
“There’s no heir apparent,” Enten said. “You know, and we can see this perhaps best by, let’s [take] a look at the early poll leader for 2028. There isn’t one, there’s no early favorite, there’s no clear favorite and that is really unusual because the bottomline is, when you have no incumbent Democratic president following this year, we’ve looked back at similar situations; back in 2017, Joe Biden was the clear heir apparent, in 2005 and then in 2013 heading into the 2016 campaign, Hillary was up in the national polls. It was pretty clear she was the heir apparent. How about Al Gore going into the 2000 campaign or ’04, again, the clear heir apparent. You have to go all the way back … to the 1992 campaign with this giant question mark over here … where there was no clear heir apparent.”
“This is going to be the first cycle it seems since going back all the way to the late ’80’s, early 1990’s in which there is no clear early frontrunner for the next Democratic nomination,” Enten continued.
The lack of a clear leader in the Democratic Party could be “good news” for the party given that Clinton lost the nomination to former President Barack Obama in the 2008 primary season, Enten and CNN’s John Berman explained. After having no clear leader in 1992, Democrats also won that year’s election when former President Bill Clinton defeated incumbent President George HW Bush.
The Democrats are currently in “bad shape,” Eaten said as he referenced Biden’s approval rating which stands at 40% nationally — just 3 points higher than former President Jimmy Carter’s favorability in 1980. The party is set to hold no majority in Congress or the White House in 2025, which has only occurred 5 times in the last 90 years.
“Even after 2016, you go into 2017 and Democrats control no levers of the Congress, Democrats have no real heir apparent really except for Biden,” Enten continued. “But Barack Obama at least had an approval rating nationwide of 53%. Look at where Joe Biden’s is, 40%. You have to go all the way back to 1980 … to find a departing incumbent Democratic president to have an approval rating as low as Joe Biden’s is right now. When you make the comparison to Jimmy Carter on popularity, you know that you’re in bad shape.”
President-elect Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris early Wednesday by securing 312 electoral votes and by becoming the first Republican nominee to win the popular vote since 2004. Republicans also gained control of the Senate, with 53 seats, and appears slated to keep control of the House of Representatives.
Trump made major inroads with black and Latino men, along with blue collar workers, who exited the Democratic Party in droves.
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(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Friday that Republican nominee Donald Trump may possibly “make history” on Election Day by winning the popular vote.
Trump’s recent edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in national polling has indicated that he may be in a position to win the popular vote, Enten said. In such a scenario, the former president would become the first Republican nominee in 20 years to win the popular vote.
“Trump may win the popular vote,” Enten said. “Everyone has been talking about this idea that Trump may win in the Electoral College but Kamala Harris will win the popular vote. But Trump may finally get his great white whale. Harris versus Trump national margin, you mention that New York Times [is] a tie, that’s actually right in the middle of the spectrum when we’re talking about recent polling data. You don’t have to look very far to find Donald Trump ahead nationally. He was up by 2 points in the CNBC poll, up by 3 [points] in the Wall Street Journal poll, very close races within the margin of error.”
“But the bottom line is, with the popular vote, which we really haven’t focused upon, a very, very tight race, John. Fact is Donald Trump is very much in a position [where] he could win the popular, which of course this is something he would absolutely love to do,” Enten continued.
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Harris is leading Trump by an average of 1 point in national popular vote polls as of Friday, standing much lower than President Joe Biden’s 9-point lead or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 6-point lead in late October before the elections of 2016 and 2020. The vice president’s narrow lead in national polling indicates that the popular vote is “way too close to call,” Enten said.
“Harris in the average poll right now is up by 1, well within the margin of error. You go back four years ago, Joe Biden was well ahead of Donald Trump in the national popular vote polls. He was up by 9. Even Hillary Clinton was up by 6 points, so now Donald Trump’s in a position he really hasn’t been before at this point in the campaign where he could truly compete and can truly say at this point that the popular vote is way too close to call,” Enten said.
A Republican presidential nominee has not won the popular vote since former President George W. Bush won re-election in 2004. Bush was the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote in a presidential election since his father, George H.W. Bush, was elected in 1988.
“The fact that the polls are so close, the fact that Donald Trump has a legitimate shot of winning the popular vote is something I think a lot of folks, including in my line of work, really didn’t think could possibly happen when Donald Trump was running last time around. He could make history, not just for Donald Trump, but for a Republican candidate as well,” Enten continued.
The former president is faring well in California, New York, Florida and Texas, which is boosting his chances of winning the popular vote, though those states will not determine a victory in the Electoral College, Enten said.
Trump took the lead nationally over Harris with 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll published Thursday, while a new CNBC poll found the former president securing a 2-point lead nationally. The former president also held a 0.8 point lead against Harris across every swing state as of Friday, according to RealClearPolling averages.
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(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten on Monday said former President Donald Trump’s substantial gains with nonwhite voters could be countered by a slight decline among “non-college white voters.”
Trump currently holds slim leads over Vice President Kamala Harris in all of the top seven battleground states, according to the RealClearPolling averages. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” suggested Trump risks losing the election in November if he doesn’t maintain his support among “non-college white voters,” a demographic that represents a significant share of American voters, particularly in certain critical battleground states.
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“It’s been a key demographic for him. It’s been his base and this is what’s so interesting, because we’ve seen so many groups this year moving in Donald Trump’s direction. So you would think his core group, his base of support would be doing the same. But in fact, it’s moving a little bit away from him. So this is Trump’s margin with non-college white voters,” Enten told host John Berman. “Unlike most voting blocs, this group is not moving towards him, it’s actually moving slightly away. So you go back eight years ago, where he won ’em by 33, You go back four years ago, he won ’em by 31.”
“Now what we look is we see them, the latest average of polls, he’s only up by 27. Now that may not seem like a lot, but given that we’re seeing these double digit gains, say among black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we’re seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well,” he continued. “I think that’s a rather interesting development.”
Trump has made inroads with key Democratic voting blocs, including black and Hispanic voters, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
“Why can a small difference with this group matter? Because look at what percentage of the electorate that they make up. So we can look nationally, right? Look at this, non-college white voters make up 40% of the electorate. That’s more than college whites at 29%. All other groups, voters of color at 28%,” Enten added. “So this is something that we’ve seen throughout the board, right? Which is that Donald Trump is making huge gains with groups that make up a smaller percentage of the electorate while he’s losing a little bit. But these groups that he’s losing a little bit of make up a much larger portion of the electorate.”
“But more than that, you know, we’re talking about the U.S. of A where they make up 40%. Why don’t you go to those key Great Lake battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? They have out-sized import in those Great Lake battleground states,” he said. “Non-college white voters, look at this. They make up the slim majority of voters at 51%, way more than college whites at 30%, way more than all other voters at 16%. So if you’re seeing movement in the Great Lake battleground states among non-college whites, that could be a very big development, John.”
The data reporter noted that Trump is shedding some support from this demographic in these crucial swing states. Trump is leading Harris 1.2% in Michigan, but only holds a .8% lead in Pennsylvania and a .2% advantage in Wisconsin, according to the RealClearPolling averages
“And when you have a shrinking margin for Donald Trump, among his core group that makes up the majority of voters, it can make up for big shifts amongst smaller groups of the electorate and this is why Kamala Harris has still in the ball game right now,” Enten said. “It’s because even though she’s losing big league, she’s losing big league among groups that make up a small portion electorate and she’s making it up among groups that make up a big portion electorate, even if the movements are small. But it’s clear here.”
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]]>(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Thursday that Republican nominee Donald Trump may be in a “very strong position” in Wisconsin if the polls are underestimating his support.
President Joe Biden won Wisconsin by about 1 point, 49.6% to 48.9%, after leading Trump by 8 points in the final polls, indicating that the current polls may be overestimating Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead in the current polls weeks before the 2024 election, Enten said. Harris and Trump both have an over 80% chance of winning the election if they secure Wisconsin, he said, making it a “pivotal” state to win.
“One of the real questions I have is whether the polls are actually going to be any good this time around, because you’ll look in 2020, what you see in the final polls in Wisconsin, you saw Biden up by 8 [points],” Enten said. “The actual result was Biden by a point, now I’ll note, I rounded that number up, I think it was 0.63 percentage points. So the question is, are the polls actually gonna be right this time around or are they gonna, again, underestimate Donald Trump? If so, Donald Trump is in a very strong position in the Badger State.”
Harris has an 82% chance and Trump an 88% chance of securing the 270 electoral necessary to win the election if they are able to secure Wisconsin, making the state is “more pivotal” for Harris to win than it is for the former president, Enten added.
“Chance they win the election if they win Wisconsin, for Kamala Harris, if she wins Wisconsin, 82% chance she wins the election,” Enten said. “For Donald Trump, it’s an 88% chance if he wins the election because the bottom line is, for Kamala Harris, the state of Wisconsin is more pivotal than it is for Donald Trump. It’s part of, of course, that Great Lake wall.”
Harris is leading Wisconsin by a narrow 0.3%, 47.9% to 47.6%, according to FiveThirtyEight. The vice president is tightly leading in Michigan 47.7% to 47.1% and in Pennsylvania 48% to 47.5%, according to more FiveThirtyEight polling.
Biden won Michigan by about 3 points in 2020, though a FiveThirtyEight poll indicated he led Trump by nearly 8 points. He also won Pennsylvania 50% to 48.8%, though a FiveThirtyEight poll indicated he led the then-president by nearly 5 points.
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(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten expressed surprise Monday at the degree to which “young black men” are abandoning the Democratic Party
Former President Barack Obama on Thursday urged black men to support Vice President Kamala Harris while speaking at a Pittsburgh-area campaign office, asserting he believes a reason for their reluctance to back her is that they “aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president.” Enten, on “CNN News Central,” said Obama was likely mistaken in his criticism as “young black men” have increasingly been leaving the Democratic Party over multiple elections against former President Donald Trump.
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“I look at the polls all the time and sometimes there’s a trend line, now, I never noticed before and make me go, ‘Woah.’ This is one of them. Alright, this is the Democratic margin among black men under the age of 45 in presidential elections. You go back to November of 2012, what do you see? You see Obama by 81, [former Secretary of State] Hillary Clinton only won ’em by 63,” Enten said. “Then we’re all the way down to [President Joe] Biden last time around by 53. A tremendous drop already. And then you take a look at the average of the most recent polls and Kamala Harris is up by only 41 points.”
“That is about half the margin that Obama won them by back in November of 2012. And this I think is, you know, when Barack Obama goes and last week when he was in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to essentially talking to young black men, he made it seem like it was a Kamala Harris-specific problem,” he added. “Uh-uh. This is part of a longstanding trend of young black men moving away from the Democratic Party. And Kamala Harris is just the latest to face that magnitude of black, younger black men going towards Republicans.”
Black voters have shifted away from Democrats from 2016 to 2024, according to a Saturday New York Times/Siena College poll. During the 2016 election, only 7% of black voters favored Republicans, a number now at 15%.
While Trump is gaining traction with “working class voters,” including nonwhite Americans without college degrees and union members, Enten previously noted that Harris could offset his gains with her “ridiculously” strong support among college graduates, particularly “white college grads.”
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]]>(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Tuesday that former President Donald Trump will secure a large election victory in November if 2024 polls are as inaccurate for him as they were in 2020.
Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race across seven key battleground states, according to the RealClearPolling average and Enten’s aggregate of polling data. The data reporter, on “CNN News Central,” noted that if Trump outperforms his polling numbers by the same margin he did against President Joe Biden in 2020, he will win enough battleground states to defeat Harris by a substantial margin.
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“If the polls are exactly right, Kamala Harris gets 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262 because she carries those Great Lake battleground states despite losing North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. But let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020,” Enten said. “What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in — Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.”
“What happens if we have a polling miss like 2022? Well, in that particular case, now, the winner has flipped again. And Kamala Harris wins in a blowout with 319 electoral votes because she retakes those Great Lake battleground states, carries North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona,” he added. “So the bottom line here is, yes, we have those state polling averages. But the real thing they tell us is that this race is too close to call. We’re probably not going to know who’s going to win for another month and perhaps another month and change.”
NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said in September that, despite Harris’ slim advantage over Trump at the time, the former president has a significant chance of victory in the electoral college because he has outperformed polling expectations in both of his previous presidential elections.
“Take a look here at the last two elections, 2020, 2016, the polling at this point coming out of Labor Day, beginning the fall rush,” Kornacki told host Ana Cabrera. “In 2016, Hillary Clinton led on average by five points. Of course, Donald Trump won in 2016. And Joe Biden had an even bigger lead on average, Labor Day 2020. Donald Trump didn’t win that election, but certainly in the electoral college, he came this close to doing so, Ana. So Trump has run from behind before, certainly.”
Trump has also been gaining support from “working class voters,” such as nonwhite Americans without college degrees and union members. Enten on Monday said that Harris could offset the former president’s gains with her substantial backing among college graduates, “specifically white voters with a college degree.”
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(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said on Wednesday that young voters who are largely backing Vice President Kamala Harris may not actually turn up to the polls.
Harris is leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by 17 points among likely voters ranging from 18 to 29 years of age and holds a 12-point lead among voters ages 18 to 34, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Wednesday. Enten warned that slightly less than half of the young demographic is “extremely motivated” to vote, indicating a significant percentage may not turn up to the polls on Election Day.
“We’ve got Kamala Harris up by 12 points, now if we thin ourselves down a little bit, let’s go under the age of 30, what do we have? We have an even larger lead for Kamala Harris, she’s up by 17 points … But, of course, are these voters actually going to turn out and vote? Extremely motivated to vote in the 2024 election, look at this, overall voters [is at] 64%. For voters under the age of 40, it’s just 49%. I think the key question isn’t just who they’re going to vote for, it’s whether they’ll turn out and vote. Oftentimes, younger voters are less likely to turn out and vote, and I think this year is going to be quite similar to that,” Enten said.
Enten further pointed out that Harris leads the former president among young voters by an average of 18 points in national polls, a 10-point decrease from Biden’s 28-point lead among this demographic in September 2020.
Enten pointed to results from a New York Times/Siena College poll that found a massive gender divide among young voters in the race between Harris and Trump in six key battleground states, with the former president holding a 10-point lead among male voters and Harris leading by 38 points with women voters.
Trump is currently leading Harris in the battleground Sunbelt states of Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll from Monday. Harris holds a 2-point lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Trump underperformed in swing state polling in the 2016 and 2020 elections, indicating he will possibly perform better in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan than the polls suggest.
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]]>(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Tuesday that Vice President Kamala Harris’ support among black and Hispanic voters is “significantly” weaker than President Joe Biden’s was at this point in the 2020 race.
Former President Donald Trump is currently leading Harris in the racially diverse sun belt states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, according to a Monday New York Times/Siena College Poll. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” noted that Harris is performing much worse with black and Hispanic voters compared to Biden’s September 2020 lead over Trump, though she is cutting into the former president’s lead among white voters, based on data from the Cook Political Report and his own aggregate of polling.
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“Look, Kamala Harris is up by 66 points among black voters. That is up from where Joe Biden was earlier this year, right, when he got out of the race he was up by 51 points over Donald Trump. But this 66-point-lead is way lower than that 80-point-lead that Joe Biden had over Donald Trump at this point in the 2020 cycle. It’s 14 points lower,” Enten said. “So the bottom line is, yes, Joe Biden was really struggling with black voters. Harris has climbed up a little bit, but she’s not anywhere near the level that Joe Biden was at this point, just four years ago.”
Enten said Harris’ lead among Hispanic voters is the “same trend idea” compared to Biden in 2020.
“Kamala Harris is ahead by 15 points. That’s certainly significantly better than Joe Biden was doing just a few months ago when it was a seven point advantage. But again, look at this, this 15 point advantage that Harris has is significantly less than Joe Biden was doing at this point years ago,” he said. “It’s only about half that number, my goodness, gracious, right? So we’re again, we’re seeing that double-digit shift from where we were four years ago at this point, not just among black voters, but Hispanic voters as well. Kamala Harris doing better than Joe Biden was doing earlier on this year, but not anywhere near as well as he was doing four years ago at this point.”
Enten noted Harris’ current support with black and Hispanic voters is “really not very good” in comparison to Biden.
“You’re wondering to yourself, how the heck is Kamala Harris so competitive in this race? And this is where it gets really interesting. This really racial dynamic, racial polarization decreasing because look among white voters … Look at this, Trump is ahead, but by eight points,” he said. “That is significantly lower than Trump’s lead was at the end of the 2020 campaign when it was a 14 point advantage and it’s even lower than it was at this point back in 2020 when it was a nine point advantage for Donald Trump.”
“So what’s essentially going on here is that Kamala Harris is able to make up the sort of lower standing that she has among black and Hispanic voters by doing significantly better than Joe Biden did four years ago in the final tally, among white voters,” Enten asserted.
Harris is currently leading Trump slightly in the whiter rust belt swing-states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the RealClearPolling averages.
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]]>(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said on Monday that Republican nominee Donald Trump is faring better in swing states in comparison to the 2020 election.
Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 5 points in Arizona and holding a 4-point and 3-point lead in Georgia and North Carolina, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll from Monday. Enten said these averages are “significantly better” than how he performed in polling from 2020, spelling good news for the former president.
“You’ve got a lot of red on this screen, this is pretty good news for Donald Trump … You take it all together in these three key battleground states, two of which [President] Joe Biden carried 4 years ago, we see that Donald Trump is ahead and by an average of 4 points, significantly better than he did back in 2020 across all of these states,” Enten said.
Enten further pointed to Harris’ 2-point lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, stating there is a “great divide” between the Sun Belt and Great Lake states. He credited Trump’s coalition being more racially “diverse” for the former president’s higher polling averages in Sun Belt states, with the former president’s support among non-white voters increasing from 16% in 2020 to 20% in 2024.
“If you know anything about those Sun Belt battleground states, it’s that they are more diverse than those Great Lake battleground states,” Enten said. “In the Southwest, they’re more Hispanic than they are nationwide, in the South, Southeast, North Carolina and Georgia, they are more African American than they are nationwide. And I think the real question here is, what does this mean for the electoral map because that’s what we’re all interested in and look folks, it’s just as tight as it can possibly be.”
Enten presented a sampled electoral map showing Harris winning 276 to 262 if the polling in the Great Lakes states are completely accurate. Trump underperformed in swing state polling in the 2016 and 2020 election, indicating he will likely perform better in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan than the polls suggest.