Most Americans Believe That the U.S. Economy Is Already in a Recession

(End of the American Dream)—In your opinion, does it feel like we are in the middle of a recession right now?  If you feel that way, you are definitely not alone.  In fact, as you will see below, most Americans believe that the U.S. is currently experiencing a recession.  Large employers have been conducting mass layoffs from coast to coast, the cost of living crisis is absolutely crushing millions upon millions of working families, and the number of business bankruptcies has jumped by more than 40 percent in just one year.  Considering all of the economic pain that we are witnessing all around us, it shouldn’t come as any surprise that 59 percent of Americans believe “that the U.S. is currently in a recession”…

And yet, 59% of Americans falsely believe that the U.S. is currently in a recession, according to a recent survey of 2,000 adults by Affirm in June.

Citing higher costs and difficulty making ends meet, most respondents said they think a recession started roughly 15 months ago, in March 2023, and could last until July 2025, Affirm found.

CNBC would like for us to believe that it is “wrong” for Americans to be thinking this way. Even though millions upon millions of Americans are deeply hurting, we are just supposed to pretend that everything is sunshine and lollipops.

They can try to gaslight us all they want, but even the Federal Reserve is admitting that most of the population is “running low on disposable cash”…

Middle- and lower-income Americans are running low on disposable cash and are on track to have less than they were on pace to have before the COVID pandemic disrupted the economy, a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found.

Retailers such as Home Depot are extremely dependent on discretionary spending.

Needless to say, discretionary spending is way down right now, and Home Depot is openly admitting that people are not spending as much on home improvement projects as they once did…

Home Depot says consumers are feeling crummy about the economy, and they’re dishing out less on major home renovation projects.

The home improvement giant, a bellwether of consumer spending and the housing market, lowered its sales expectations for the year. It said customers were spending less on home improvement projects, pressured by higher interest rates and concerns that the economy is getting worse.

Home Depot’s business is closely tied to the housing market, and high interest rates are putting a brake on housing turnover and consumers financing larger projects.

When the economy is booming, Home Depot is usually swimming in cash. But when the economy is struggling, Home Depot really tends to struggle.

To me, this is one of the clearest indications yet of where the economy is heading.

Of course it isn’t just discretionary spending that is down.

At this point, many Americans can’t even afford the basics.  In fact, one recent survey discovered that 39 percent of Americans have actually skipped meals just so that they can make their rent or mortgage payments…

39% of Americans say they’ve skipped meals to make housing payments, per Clever Real Estate survey.

And among millennials, that figure rose to 44%. Among Baby Boomers, it was 20%.

Wow.

I had not seen that number before. That is just stunning.

In a desperate attempt to make ends meet, millions upon millions of us are racking up enormous credit card balances, and lots of people are now falling behind…

A growing number of borrowers are falling behind on their monthly credit card payments. Over the last year, roughly 9.1% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed reported for the second quarter of 2024. And more middle-income households anticipate struggling with debt payments in the coming months.

In particular, credit card accounts that were opened in 2021, 2022 and 2023 have particularly high rates of delinquency…

Overall delinquencies increased rapidly over the last few years because the credit cards originated in 2021, 2022, and 2023 have gone delinquent much more rapidly than credit cards originated in other years. About 8 percent of credit cards originated in 2016 became delinquent about four years after origination. Meanwhile, the 2021 vintage reached an 8 percent delinquency rate just after 2 years while the 2022 vintage reached 8 percent after less than two years and 2023 has followed 2022 closely so far.

Sadly, a lot more economic pain is on the way, because I am entirely convinced that the cost of living will continue to rise faster than paychecks do.

One recent survey found that the high cost of living is one of the biggest reasons why so many of us consider living in large cities such as Washington D.C., New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco to be undesirable…

The company found that the the nation’s capital, for the second year running, is the one Americans feel the largest distaste for.

According to the findings, 33 percent of respondents said it is one of the top five worst cities in the country, up from 20 percent last year.

65 percent of people said that a high cost of living makes a place undesirable, with New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco also ranking on the list of unfavorable places.

But it isn’t just our large cities that are being absolutely hammered by the current economic climate.

In some areas of the country, it literally looks like the next “Great Depression” has already hit.

For decades, the U.S. experienced an extended period of time when the standard of living was extraordinarily high.

But that was never enough.

We always had to have more, and so we piled up the largest mountain of government debt in the history of the world, the largest mountain of corporate debt in the history of the world, and the largest mountain of consumer debt in the history of the world.

Now those bubbles have started to burst, and as a result our entire system is at risk.

Economic conditions are not great now, but the truth is that what we are experiencing at this moment will be considered rip-roaring prosperity compared to what is eventually coming.

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.