The United States closed out 2025 with a stunning reduction in homicides, marking the sharpest annual decline ever documented. According to a fresh analysis from the Council on Criminal Justice, murders fell by 21% across 35 major cities compared to 2024, potentially pushing the national rate to its lowest level since 1900. This drop translates to roughly 922 fewer lives lost to homicide last year, a figure that stands out even amid broader trends of decreasing violence.
Data from cities large and small paint a clear picture of progress. In Richmond, Virginia, homicides plummeted by 59%, while Los Angeles saw a 39% reduction. New York City’s murders decreased by 10%, and Atlanta recorded under 100 homicides for the first time since before the pandemic, down 14% from 2024. Overall, 31 of the 35 cities tracked showed declines, with standout improvements in Denver (41%), Washington, D.C. (40%), and Omaha, Nebraska (40%). These numbers build on a multi-year slide, with homicides now 25% below 2019 levels in the sampled cities and 44% lower than the 2021 peak.
Beyond murders, other violent and property crimes followed suit. Carjackings have tumbled 61% since 2023, shoplifting dipped 10% from 2024, and overall violent offenses returned to or below pre-pandemic figures in most categories. FBI data through September 2025 reinforces this, showing a 17.7% drop in murders, 17.2% in robberies, and 7.6% in aggravated assaults nationwide. Only drug offenses bucked the trend with a slight uptick, while sexual assaults held steady.
Experts attribute the shift to a combination of targeted strategies and societal recovery. Ernesto Lopez, senior research specialist at the Council on Criminal Justice and lead author of the report, noted that homicide rates had been on a downward path since the late 2000s before the 2020 spike.
“It is possible that these rates reflect a longer-term downward trend punctuated by periods of elevated homicides,” Lopez said. Atlanta Police Chief Darren Schierbaum pointed to his department’s efforts, stating the city has experienced a “dramatic decrease in shootings since 2022.”
Thaddeus Johnson, an assistant professor of criminal justice at Georgia State University and former Memphis police official, emphasized practical steps: “Many cities focused enforcement and prevention on the small number of neighborhoods and groups driving a large share of shootings, improved shooting investigations, and got the courts moving again.”
He also credited the return of everyday community presence, where bystanders help de-escalate disputes before they turn deadly. Yet Johnson cautioned that national figures can mask persistent issues in certain areas: “The key question is which neighborhoods are sustaining gains, and which are not.”
This progress didn’t happen in a vacuum. The end of pandemic disruptions played a role, with stabilized routines and federal relief funds aiding community programs. But law enforcement’s renewed emphasis on accountability under President Donald Trump stands out.
After years of policies that some argue softened penalties and strained police resources—like defund-the-police movements in cities such as Minneapolis and Portland—many departments shifted back to proactive policing. Focused deterrence in high-risk zones, faster case resolutions, and bolstered investigations have proven effective, echoing strategies that drove down crime in the 1990s.
Still, questions linger about the data’s completeness. In some liberal strongholds, critics point to potential underreporting, where victims hesitate to involve police amid eroded trust. Recent federal operations in cities like Chicago and D.C., aimed at curbing gangs and illegal immigration, contributed to the steepest drops. Conservative analysts, including those at the Manhattan Institute, suggest demographics also factor in: an aging population, increased surveillance, and lifestyle changes mean fewer opportunities for crime.
President Trump’s second term, which began in January 2025, coincides with this acceleration. While the decline started in 2023 and 2024, the administration’s push for tougher borders and support for local police—through National Guard deployments and deportation drives—has been credited for amplifying the momentum.
Trump himself noted in June 2025 that “just a few months into office, the national murder rate has plummeted by 28 percent,” though independent experts trace the bulk of the drop to pre-inauguration trends. Regardless, the results speak to the value of prioritizing security over leniency.
Public perceptions are catching up, albeit unevenly. A Gallup poll from October 2025 found that only 49% of Americans viewed national crime as a very serious problem, down from prior years, with Republicans more concerned than Democrats (69% vs. 37%). This partisan gap reflects media influences, where conservative outlets like Fox News highlight urban dangers, while others downplay them. Yet as crime falls, even skeptics are adjusting: Republican views on rising crime dropped from 90% in 2024 to just over half in 2025.
Looking to 2026, forecasts vary. Crime analyst Jeff Asher predicts a continued but slower decline in murders, possibly breaking 2025’s record low rate. The Council on Criminal Justice’s John Roman expects more variation across cities, while Thaddeus Johnson anticipates a leveling off with ongoing disparities. NPR’s analysis suggests the drop may stall if community trust erodes further due to aggressive federal tactics. Broader projections from the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation see violent crime edging down slightly through 2026, with property crime possibly ticking up modestly.
This historic low offers a chance to build on what works: supporting police, enforcing laws firmly, and fostering community involvement. But complacency could reverse gains, especially if economic pressures or policy missteps reopen old wounds. The data proves that when priorities align with protecting citizens, real safety follows. As cities like Baltimore cut homicides by nearly 60% over five years, the path forward demands sustained commitment to order and justice.
