Is World War III upon us? Since President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS long-range missiles, the hearts of the media-chattering class have been fluttering. Prognostications range from one extreme to the other: Putin is all talk, or he’s going to launch nuclear weapons and end the world. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, a poorly defined place.
Some Believe a World War Is Already Happening
When President Biden allowed Ukraine to use the American-made Army Tactical Missiles System (ATACMS), Kyiv forces immediately attacked, with Ukraine launching eight supersonic missiles at Russian military facilities. The targets were in the Bryansk region, 235 miles southwest of Moscow. ATACMS missiles have a range of roughly 190 miles. Russian President Vladimir Putin reacted by revising the Russian nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the Kremlin’s use of atomic weapons.
Putin also authorized the use of an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) in an air attack on Ukraine. Reports assert the IRBM, called Oreshnik by the Russians, was based on the Russian RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which accounts for the initial erroneous assessments that Ukraine had been attacked by an ICBM. Though the damage was minimal, media observers considered the use of the new missile a significant escalation in Moscow’s attacks on Ukraine. Nonetheless, Russia now knows the missile’s accuracy and other parameters in real-time combat employment. In a television address, Putin boasted that the US and European countries could not intercept it.
The commander of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces “told Putin that the Oreshnik can strike targets across Europe and stressed that there are no analogs to the Oreshnik anywhere in the world,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. Whether that’s true or not, the US has increased its shipments of anti-missile Patriot systems to Ukraine. Additionally, despite the boasting by the Kremlin leadership, ISW explained, “US and Ukrainian reporting on the November 21 ballistic missile strike, however, emphasized that the Oreshnik missile is not inherently a novel Russian capability.”
Consider all the foreign assistance to Russia in its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and the aperture for a more global conflict has opened. In a speech at the Ukrainska Pravda-100 award event, the former commander-in-chief of the Ukraine Armed Forces explained:
“I believe that in 2024, we can absolutely assume that World War III has begun. The reason is that in 2024, Ukraine is no longer facing Russia. Ukraine is facing soldiers from North Korea. Let’s be honest. Iranian-made Shaheds [loitering munitions] are killing civilians in Ukraine quite openly. Its missiles made in North Korea that are being launched onto Ukraine, and they are openly declaring this. Chinese-made shells are exploding in Ukraine, and Chinese parts are used in Russian missiles.” […]
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