As the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision approaches, investors are adopting a defensive posture, gravitating towards sectors perceived as safe havens. This shift comes on the heels of a robust first half of the year, largely driven by the performance of major technology stocks.
In early September, shares in real estate, utilities, and consumer staples have emerged as top performers. Gold prices continue to rise, and government bond yields are on track for their most significant monthly decline since December, indicating a flight to safety as bond prices increase.
“It’s really been something to see,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at the Bahnsen Group, commenting on the market’s rotation towards defensive assets.
Concerns surrounding the U.S. economy’s health, the potential scale of forthcoming interest rate cuts, and the upcoming November presidential election have led some investors to exercise caution.
The latest inflation report did little to alleviate these worries. Core inflation, which excludes the often-volatile food and energy sectors, came in slightly above expectations, prompting a sharp decline in stocks and bond yields before a late-day recovery.
Since early August, markets have struggled to maintain stability, particularly as some of Wall Street’s favored trades began to unwind and data indicated a potential cooling in the labor market. Major indexes have experienced significant one-day fluctuations, yet the S&P 500 remains only 2% below its July peak and has gained 16% year-to-date.
The once-dominant Magnificent Seven tech stocks have also seen a decline in momentum. Nvidia, for instance, has dropped 7% since its earnings report on August 28, despite posting quarterly earnings and sales that more than doubled—a growth rate that has slowed from the previous year’s rapid pace.
The recent market reordering has positioned the utilities sector in close competition with technology as the top-performing group in the S&P 500 for 2024, with both sectors up over 20%.
The Fed is widely anticipated to initiate interest rate cuts at its upcoming meeting. Investors believe that the unexpected rise in core inflation strengthens the case for a modest quarter-percentage point cut rather than a more aggressive half-point reduction. According to CME Group, the likelihood of a larger rate cut has decreased to about 15%, down from 34% earlier in the week.
As interest rates are poised to decline, the attractive dividend yields offered by defensive stocks become increasingly appealing. The real estate sector of the S&P 500 currently boasts a yield of 3%, followed closely by utilities at 2.9% and consumer staples at 2.2%.
Don’t just survive — THRIVE! Prepper All-Naturals has freeze-dried steaks for long-term storage. Don’t wait for food shortages to get worse. Stock up today. Use promo code “jdr” at checkout for 25% off!
“If you’re going to buy something that might have upside from an equity perspective, but it’s also going to give you money to sit and wait, it’s not a bad place to do it,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.
Bank of America strategists have advised clients to increase their exposure to utilities and real estate, predicting these sectors will benefit from a lower interest rate environment due to their attractive dividends.
Defensive stocks, such as those in real estate, utilities, and consumer staples, are favored because consumers prioritize essential expenses like rent, utility bills, and household goods, even when they cut back on discretionary spending.
Gold has reached new all-time highs since March, driven by a surge in demand for safe-haven assets. Lower interest rates enhance gold’s appeal, as it does not yield income, making it more attractive compared to dividend-paying stocks and interest-bearing bonds. Gold prices have risen 23% this year, outpacing the S&P 500.
- Concerned about your life’s savings as the multiple challenges decimate retirement accounts? You’re not alone. Find out how Genesis Precious Metals can help you secure your wealth with a proper self-directed IRA backed by physical precious metals.
“We haven’t had to make the case for gold nearly as much as we’ve had to make the case for OUR gold,” said Jonathan Rose, CEO of Genesis Gold Group. “Retirees in particular have appreciated our faith-driven approach to rollovers and transfers of their retirement accounts into physical precious metals.”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield settled at 3.653% on Wednesday, marking the second-lowest level of 2024. Bond yields typically decline as prices rise, and investors often seek the safety of U.S. Treasurys during turbulent market conditions.
Meanwhile, the S&P Global Investment Manager Index’s risk appetite reading has dropped to its lowest level since May 2023. This monthly survey, which gathers insights from approximately 300 institutional investors, reveals concerns about valuations, political uncertainty, and recession risks.
Despite the current market dynamics, stocks appear historically expensive. The S&P 500 is trading at 21 times its expected earnings over the next 12 months, compared to its 10-year average of 18.
The pressing question for investors is whether the current surge in defensive assets is a temporary trend or the beginning of a new market regime.
“We’ve gone through a few of these headfakes, but we think this one is real because rates are going to start coming down,” said Emerson Ham III, senior partner at Sound View Wealth Advisors. “If you get a rally where you’ve got defensive names doing well but also technology performing on a fundamental basis, that’s kind of the best of both worlds.”
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
