It’s been said that not only does history repeat itself, but it also rhymes. That may be mixing adages, but regarding the United States, China, and Taiwan, both may apply.
Similar Geopolitical Factors
Let’s consider the geographic similarities between Cuba and Taiwan.
Cuba sits 90 miles offshore from the United States, a global superpower. It was an ally of the former Soviet Union, a communist regime that competed with the United States for global power and influence from 1945 to its collapse in 1991.
Likewise, from 1949 until today, Taiwan has been a U.S. ally located about 100 miles from the mainland communist China regime. This global superpower is also competing with the United States for control and influence over the world.
In 1962, Havana’s alliance with Moscow was a critical asset for the Soviets in several ways. Cuba was an ideological thorn in the side of the United States, as it showed the world, and especially the region, that American power had its limits, even in its own front yard.
Cuba’s communist revolution also showed the world that Russia’s power extended all the way to the Americas. As a result, Russia’s influence and military support spawned movements and governments sympathetic to the Soviet Union across Latin America. Most notable were Chile, Peru, Argentina, Nicaragua, Brazil, and of course, the one-time jewel of the region, Venezuela.
Much the same can be said about Taiwan, with a few critical differences, of course. For example, just as Cuba was an inspiration and perhaps even a catalyst for communist revolutions in the region, a secure, free, and independent Taiwan is a key factor for U.S.-led security, independence, and freedom of the entire Asia-Pacific region.
A Thorn in Xi’s Side
Furthermore, Taiwan is an ideological thorn on the side of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The small, free, and capitalist island nation of about 23 million shows the 1.4 billion Chinese living under the bootheel of the CCP that they don’t need the Party to rule over them in order for China to succeed. The tiny but wealthy island nation is undeniable proof of that fact.
That is why Xi Jinping, in his ascent to absolute power, has pledged to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control by 2027, if not before. As his power over the economy grows, the more it will contract in real terms.
Taiwan’s Global Strategic Significance
But in the Cuba-Taiwan comparison, the key distinction is Taiwan’s unique strategic technological and economic value to the world. Unlike Cuba, which produced nothing the world really needed, barring excellent cigars, a bit of sugar and rum, as well as Latin jazz and mercenaries for export, Taiwan produces microchips that are critical for virtually all of the developed economies.
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The strategic importance of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and a handful of other manufacturers cannot be overstated. It’s estimated that the chipmaker provides up to 92 percent of the world’s most important chips for satellite communications, guidance, artificial intelligence, robotics, and many other high-tech verticals. No advanced economy in the world can function without them.
The Lynchpin in US Hegemony
Because Taiwan is the lynchpin of American power in the region and, arguably, in the world, it would fundamentally alter the world order if it were to fall under Beijing’s control. U.S. military and economic credibility would be shattered.
Other nations in the region would have to rethink their alliance with the United States, as well as all other nations allied with America. We might see a cascade of Asian nations abandoning the United States in order to make a separate peace with Beijing.
The Losing Blockade Calculus in Cuba
There’s at least one other parallel in the Cuba-Taiwan matrix that may come to pass. The resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis in the fall of 1962 wasn’t accomplished with military force per se but rather by the U.S. naval blockade of the island.
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The blockade forced the Russians to either escalate the situation by engaging the U.S. Navy 90 miles off the coast of the United States or stand down. If Moscow sought to break through the blockade, it would be viewed as starting World War III or at least facing the possibility of a nuclear attack.
It was a lose-lose situation for Moscow. If the Russians attacked the U.S. Navy, they’d be seen as the aggressors in a naval battle against the United States. That would be bad enough. But they would also most certainly lose that battle and suffer both a military and ideological defeat. Worse, engaging the U.S. militarily could also trigger nuclear escalation.
Would the Soviet Union trade Moscow for Havana? Of course not.
Would the US Violate a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan?
China needs access to TSMC’s microchips badly, and needs the production facilities intact. An invasion may lead to Taiwan destroying its factories.
But what if China decided to deploy a naval blockade around Taiwan? What if Beijing declared that any violation of the blockade, or associated airspace, would be considered an act of war?
More to the point, would the Biden administration be prepared to break such a blockade were one to manifest?
Much of the same arguments above may also apply to this scenario. The onus of initiating actual warfare would be on the United States, and the risk of escalation would certainly be there. Such an escalation would likely involve Taiwan, Japan, and perhaps South Korea. It could also trigger a North Korean attack on both South Korea and Japan.
Several additional negating factors would have to be considered as well. U.S. economic weakness, a depleted navy, and the decline in overall military readiness in U.S. forces would play a role in such a decision. Increasing and extended U.S. involvement in Ukraine’s war against Russia would also be a significant factor.
The potentially huge and unknown direction of events should the United States break a Chinese blockade around Taiwan may cause hesitation on the part of the Biden administration, which has shown a preference for avoiding or ending. Another critical factor is China’s arsenal of hypersonic anti-ship missiles, against which U.S. ships may have little or no defenses.
A US Withdrawal in Asia?
What might be the position of the United States in such a scenario?
Despite the president’s hawkish rhetoric about defending Taiwan, in the event of a blockade by China, rather than an invasion, it’s conceivable that the United States would come to a negotiated settlement in order to save face. The administration would characterize itself as a peacemaker, believed only by diehard supporters at home, but no one else, particularly in the region.
Shortly after that, Beijing would likely break the agreed-upon terms to finish the job on Taiwan, humiliate the Biden administration (again), and potentially end U.S. pretensions of hegemony in the region, if not the world.
Article cross-posted from our premium news partners at The Epoch Times.
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CHINA AND RUSSIA
A Vision Received by Brother Dumitru Duduman April 22, 1996
I prayed, then went to bed. I was still awake, when suddenly I heard a trumpet sound. A voice cried out to me, “Stand!”
In my vision, I was in America. I walked out of my home, and began to look for the one who had spoken to me. As I looked, I saw three men dressed alike. Two of the men carried weapons. One of the armed men came to me. “I woke you to show you what is to come.” He said. “Come with me.”
I didn’t know where I was being taken, but when we reached a certain place he said, “stop here!”
A pair of binoculars was handed to me, and I was told to look through them.
“Stand there, don’t move, and look,” he continued. “You will see what they are saying, and what they are preparing for America.”
As I was looking, I saw a great light. A dark cloud appeared over it. I saw the president of Russia, a short, chubby man, who said he was the president of China, and two others. The last two also said where they were from, but I did not understand. However, I gathered they were part of Russian controlled territory. The men stepped out of the cloud.
The Russian president began to speak to the Chinese one. “I will give you the land with all the people, but you must free Taiwan of the Americans. Do not fear, we will attack them from behind.”
A voice said to me, “Watch where the Russians penetrate America.”
I saw these words being written: Alaska; Minnesota; Florida.
Then, the man spoke again, “When America goes to war with China, the Russians will strike without warning.”
The other two presidents spoke, “We, too, will fight for you.” Each had a place already planned as a point of attack.
All of them shook hands and hugged. Then they all signed a contract. One of them said, “We’re sure that Korea and Cuba will be on our side, too. Without a doubt, together, we can destroy America.”
The president of Russia began to speak insistently, “Why let ourselves be led by the Americans? Why not rule the world ourselves? They have to be kicked out of Europe, too! Then I could do as I please with Europe!”
The man standing beside me asked, “This is what you saw: they act as friends, and say they respect the treaties made together. But everything I’ve shown you is how it will REALLY happen. You must tell them what is being planned against American. Then, when it comes to pass, the people will remember the words the Lord has spoken.”
Who are you?” I asked.
“I am the protector of America. America’s sin has reached God. He will allow this destruction, for He can no longer stand such wickedness. God however, still has people that worship Him with a clean heart as they do His work. He has prepared a heavenly army to save these people.”
As I looked, a great army, well armed and dressed in white, appeared before me.
“Do you see that?” the man asked. “This army will go to battle to save My chosen ones. Then, the difference between the Godly and the ungodly will be evident.”
Excepted from:
Dreams and Visions From God
Copyright © 1994, 1996, 2000