(DCNF)—House Republicans’ quest to preserve their slim majority will likely be dependent on the outcomes of four New York races with GOP incumbents in previously pro-Biden districts engaged in tough reelection fights.
Democrats need to flip just four Republican-held seats to retake control of the House, and party operatives are zeroing in on a group of freshman lawmakers representing competitive New York districts as prime pick-up opportunities. Though these Republican incumbents have faced voter registration and fundraising deficits in addition to running in a presidential election year that could see increased turnout, the campaigns and GOP operatives are optimistic that all of the Republican incumbent candidates in tight races will prevail on election day, according to interviews with campaign officials and written statements given to the Daily Caller News Foundation.
The incumbents — New York Republican Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams — must also overcome another challenge: President Joe Biden won the districts they represent by comfortable margins in 2020. Each candidate won by less than five points during the 2022 midterms, which saw New York Republican candidates make historic gains.
In D’Esposito’s Long Island district, Biden beat former President Donald Trump by more than 14 points in 2020, making the district the most pro-Biden seat in the country held by a Republican running for reelection.
In 2022, D’Esposito won New York’s fourth district by a four-point margin against his opponent, former Hempstead Town supervisor Laura Gillen, with the two set for a rematch in November. A Siena College poll from Oct. 13-17 showed Gillen ahead by 12 points in the contest.
D’Esposito’s campaign argued to the DCNF that the Siena College poll has “fundamental flaws” because the polling occurred during the Jewish holiday of Sukkot and failed to get an accurate sample of Jewish voters, which the campaign believes overwhelmingly support him.
“In a district with a large Jewish population, the pollster interviewed people during significant Jewish holy days. In fact, a large segment of the Jewish population don’t use electronic devices at this time. If Siena’s numbers were even close to accurate, Democrats would not be spending tens of millions of dollars to defeat D’Esposito while totally neglecting a statistical dead heat (according to Siena’s data) in the adjacent district, NY-1,” Matt Capp, spokesman for the D’Esposito campaign, added.
A poll conducted between Oct. 11 and 19 by Gotham Polling & Analytics has D’Esposito up by one point, with 6% of voters undecided. Capp told the DCNF that local opposition to the influx of migrants in New York City, the recently-tabled congestion pricing program and offshore wind are keeping this district in play for Republicans.
“The New York races have the advantage in that the Democratic Party has almost destroyed the state,” New York Republican consultant Bill O’Reilly told the DCNF. “We’re feeling it in taxes, in crime, in the migrant chaos.”
“There’s a built-in inclination to go Republican this time,” O’Reilly added.
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Gillen has also outraised D’Esposito by more than $700,000, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. Cook Political Report designates the race as a “toss-up.”
O’Reilly pointed to Lawler as the candidate most likely to prevail among the four incumbents despite running in a district that Biden won by more than ten points in 2020 and being outraised by roughly $1.3 million by his opponent, former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones of New York, according to FEC filings. O’Reilly served as the spokesperson for Lawler’s 2022 campaign.
“He has worked that district incredibly hard. He’s a classic example of someone who’s differentiated himself,” O’Reilly told the DCNF. “He’s a bipartisan guy. He works hard, he talks to everybody. He’s in the district like he said. He’s done the work to make himself known.”
Despite the most recent independent polling showing Lawler up by just one point, O’Reilly told the DCNF that Lawler’s internal polling has the candidate up by higher margins. The Cook Political Report changed the rating from “toss-up” to “lean Republican” on Oct. 25.
O’Reilly also told the DCNF that Lawler’s condemnation of anti-Israel protests at Columbia University over the past year and support for Israel in the country’s war against Hamas is likely to pay dividends in a district that has one of the highest percentages of Jewish voters in the country.
“Jewish voters in the 17th Congressional District and across the country will have a decisive impact on how elections play out across the country,” Chris Russell, spokesman for Lawler’s campaign, told the DCNF. “Orthodox, Reform, Conservative and Hasidic voters all want a few basic things in life — safe neighborhoods, good schools and a strong economy. Republicans provide winning arguments on all of those issues, and that’s why Jewish voters will be supporting candidates like Mike Lawler this November.”
Roll Call designated Williams as the most vulnerable member of the House running for reelection due to redistricting changes that made the Republican incumbent’s central New York district more Democratic. He leads his opponent, New York state senator John Mannion, by one point in the Williams campaign’s most recent internal poll. The Cook Political Report designates the race as “lean Democrat.”
Taylor Weyneth, a Williams campaign official, told the DCNF that their focus is not on the presidential ticket but on Albany and the “disastrous policies” pushed by state Democratic lawmakers and signed into law by New York governor Kathy Hochul.
“We’re running against Albany because we’re running against a New York state senator who was there for all of these disastrous policy decisions and has to own that record,” Weyneth told the DCNF. “Our opponent — he voted to give taxpayer-funded free health care to illegal immigrants and called voters ‘ignorant’ for being concerned about the migrant crisis impacting their community.”
Weyneth also told the DCNF that the campaign is feeling optimistic due to strong early voting numbers from registered Republicans. “We’re feeling confident and onward to victory,” Weyneth added.
O’Reilly described Molinaro, the 2018 New York Republican nominee for governor who now represents the Hudson Valley, as a “fighter.” Molinaro is currently in a brutal reelection contest and trails his Democratic opponent, Josh Riley, by four points in the latest polling. Molinaro beat Riley by less than two points in 2022.
The Molinaro-Riley rematch is the most expensive House race in New York, with more than $25 million worth of political ads on track to air.
“This race is about priorities,” Molinaro told the DCNF. “I’m for securing our border and putting Upstate New Yorkers first, my opponent Josh Riley supports keeping the border open and giving taxpayer-funded perks like credit cards and hotels to illegal immigrants.”
The Cook Political Report rates Molinaro’s reelection bid as a “toss-up.”
New York House Republicans, led by Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, are also trying to flip a competitive seat in the mid-Hudson Valley held by Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan.
The Republican candidate, Alison Esposito, ran as the Republican nominee for New York’s lieutenant governor in 2022. The most recent independent polling from early October shows Esposito trailing Ryan by five points. The projected outcome for the Esposito-Ryan contest is “lean-Democrat,” according to Cook Political Report.
“Alison’s message of supporting law enforcement, securing our border, creating jobs, strengthening the economy, and defending our allies is resonating across NY-18,” Ben Weiner, spokesman for the Esposito campaign, told the DCNF. “Since beginning our campaign over a year ago, we’ve heard from Hudson Valley residents across the district who are ready for change. They know Pat Ryan is on the wrong side of every issue and are ready to send a common sense leader to D.C. That’s why Alison is surging in the polls and within striking distance of Pat Ryan.
“We are confident that we have the momentum and the winning message to flip NY-18 and secure a victory on election night,” Weiner added.
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