Covid Policy and Outcomes

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Did shelter-in-place (SIP) policies work? More precisely, did they reduce excess deaths?

Article by Gerald P. O’Driscoll, Jr. from AIER.

A recent NBER working paper addresses the question (Virat Agrawal, Jonathan H. Cantor, Neeraj Sood, and Christopher M. Whaley, ‘The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses on Excess Mortality,’ Working Paper 28930, National Bureau of Economic Research, June 2021).

Early studies found that SIP policies slowed transmission of Covid-19; more recent studies question that finding (2). This paper is very much in the questioning mode. The authors use the concept of excess deaths as a measure of all-cause mortality. It compares actual deaths in a geographic location at a point in time to expected deaths based on historical data (3). Their data come from 43 countries and all 50 states. They use an event study approach. The results are striking.

“…we fail to find that SIP policies saved lives. To the contrary, we find a positive association between SIP policies and excess deaths. We find that following the implementation of SIP policies, excess mortality increases.” The result is statistically significant only for the international comparison (4). Much of the paper discusses the possible reasons for the empirical results.

It must be noted that, conceptually, the outcome of SIP policies was always ambiguous. This is true for two reasons. First, it is possible that individuals might have voluntarily adopted measures to protect themselves from infection. Indeed, it is absurd to make the counterfactual that individuals would take no actions on their own to protect themselves until ordered to do so.

Second, SIP policies might reduce deaths from Covid-19 but increase deaths from other causes. There is direct evidence for that. In fact, the authors adduce three potential explanations for why SIP policies did not reduce excess mortality.

First, they refer to the possibility that individuals did in fact change behavior even before SIP policies. So, SIP policies might have only a modest impact on mobility. That is what some prior studies have found. Second, the authors note the possibility “that SIP policies increased deaths of despair due to social and economic isolation effects….” They cite estimates that, between March and August 2020 drug overdoses, homicides, and unintentional injuries increased, though suicides declined. And, third, they cite studies showing that SIP policies led to reductions in non-Covid-19 healthcare (16). I’d add that these possibilities were identified contemporaneously by critics of SIP policies, including by signatories of the Great Barrington Declaration.

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The authors conclude modestly that “in light of this evidence continued reliance on SIP policies to slow COVID-19 transmission may not be optimal” (16). Instead, they advocate for the use of vaccinations and therapeutics (16-17).

There is a Hayekian critique of SIP and allied policies. The knowledge of particular circumstances of time and place is widely dispersed throughout society. Individuals know more about their specific situations, including exposure risks, than could any centralized public health officials. They certainly know how many precautions they have already taken. The dispersed information cannot be aggregated in one mind, however brilliant that mind might be. The argument against central planning of public health is analogous to that against central planning of an economy.

There is an allied issue, namely social distancing. Both policies seek to regulate social interactions. This produced the famous Six-Foot rule in closed spaces. The problem is the rule was predicated on the assumption that “the primary vector of pathogen transmission is the large drops ejected from the most vigorous exhalation events, coughing and sneezing” (Martin Z. Bazant and John W. M. Bush, “A Guideline to Limit Indoor Airborne Transmission of COVID-19.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2021 Vol. 118 No. 17 e2018995118, p. 1). If the assumption were valid, the Six-Foot rule might be justified. Unfortunately, “there is now overwhelming evidence that indoor airborne transmission associated with relatively small, micron-scale aerosol droplets plays a dominant role in the spread of COVID-19, especially for so-called ‘superspreading events,’ which invariably occur indoors.” Bearing heavily on the transmission process is the kind of ventilation in the room. The authors rely on the concept of “well-mixed spaces” to conclude that generally “one is no safer from airborne pathogens at 60 ft than 6 ft” (2).

Most of the paper is devoted to technical, model-theoretic calculations of safe-spacing. They present two case studies. One is for classrooms. Under reasonable assumptions (including mask wearing), they conclude “school transmission would be rare” (7). But their analysis “sounds the alarm for elderly homes and long-term care facilities…” (7). The Six-Foot rule fails very quickly, in as little as 3 minutes. It is no wonder that hospitalizations and deaths were so high in these facilities.

They conclude that the six-Foot rule is inadequate, and they offer “a rational, physically informed alternative for managing life in the time of COVID-19” (11). I can only concur that in social distancing as with SIP policy, rationality was absent. Science was repeatedly invoked, but at least the actions I examined here were not supported by science. The reason for this may have been identified by Lord Acton in the 19^th century. “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”

American Patriots Uniting to Fight Tyranny from, Well, Everywhere

We’re building a new conservative news network. Based on responses from fellow patriots, we’re heading in the right direction.

It may be hard to believe based on what we’re seeing around the nation today, but there are many reasons to be hopeful. First and foremost, the false narrative that most of America hates traditional values or the foundations of our nation are finally being proven false. Despite the best efforts of globalists and Neo-Marxists, patriotic Americans are starting to unify in droves. Meanwhile, Joe Biden can barely muster a half-filled auditorium to deliver his message to the scant few watching CNN and the paid shills in the “crowd.”

The “silent majority” that drove Donald Trump to victory in 2016 and 2020 (yes, he won by a landslide but was robbed along with the American people) is finally starting to realize we cannot stay silent any longer. We used to win with our votes, but those are being stolen. We used to win with truth, but the radical left and their agents in mainstream media, Big Tech, and academia are building a post-truth society to drown out reality. Today, we are waking up to the realization that only through direct action and fearlessly spreading the truth can we overcome the nefarious forces working against us.

We are proud to be working our way up to the tip of the conservative media spear. Our network is growing. We’re establishing strong partnerships with like-minded news outlets and courageous journalists. Even as Big Tech suppresses us, the honest messages they’re trying to quash are finding their way to the eyes and ears of patriots across the nation. With the help of new content partners like The Epoch Times and The Liberty Daily, we’re starting to see a real impact.

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Our network is currently comprised of nine sites:

Some of our content is spread across all of these sites. Other pieces of content are unique. We write most of what we post but we also draw from those willing to allow us to share their quality articles, videos, and podcasts. We collect the best content from fellow conservative sites that give us permission to republish them. We’re not ego-driven; I’d much rather post a properly attributed story written by experts like Dr. Joseph Mercola or Natural News than rewrite it like so many outlets like to do. We’re not here to take credit. We’re here to spread the truth.

The slow and steady reopening of America is revealing there was a lot more economic hardship brought about from the Covd-19 lockdowns than most realize. While we continue to hope advertising dollars on the sites go up, it’s simply not enough to do things the right way. We are currently experiencing a gap between revenue and expenses that cannot be overcome by click-ads and MyPillow promos alone (promo code “NOQ” by the way).

To overcome our revenue gap and keep these sites running, our needs fluctuate between $2200-$7800 per month. May, 2021, for example, was amazing and we almost broke even. June, revenue was sluggish at best and we had to make up a big difference out of our pockets. But we’re not just trying to get out of the red. If and when we start getting enough contributions to expand, we will do just that. Very few get into journalism to try to get rich and we’re definitely not among those who do. Our success is driven by spreading the truth, profitable or not.

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Time is short. As the world spirals towards radical progressivism, the need for truthful journalism has never been greater. But in these times, we need as many conservative media voices as possible. Please help keep NOQ Report and the other sites in the network going. Our promise is this: We will never sell out America. If that means we’re going to struggle for a while or even indefinitely, so be it. Integrity first. Truth first. America first.

Thank you and God Bless,
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Most “Conservative” News Outlets Are on the Big Tech Teat

Not long ago, conservative media was not beholden to anyone. Today, most sites are stuck on the Big Tech gravy train.

I’ll keep this short. The rise of Pandemic Panic Theater, massive voter fraud, and other “taboo” topics have neutered a majority of conservative news sites. You’ll notice they are very careful about what topics they tackle. Sure, they’ll attack Critical Race Theory, Antifa, and the Biden-Harris regime, but you won’t see them going after George Soros, Bill Gates, the World Economic Forum, or the Deep State, among others.

The reason is simple. They are beholden to Big Tech, and Big Tech doesn’t allow certain topics to be discussed or they’ll cut you off. Far too many conservative news outlets rely on Google, Facebook, and Twitter for the bulk of their traffic. They depend on big checks from Google ads to keep the sites running. I don’t necessarily hold it against them. We all do what we need to do to survive. I just wish more would do like we have, which is to cut out Big Tech altogether.

We don’t get Google checks. We don’t have Facebook or Twitter buttons on our stories. We don’t have a YouTube Channel (banned), an Instagram profile (never made one), or a TikTok (no thanks, CCP). We’re not perfect, but we’re doing everything we can to not owe anything to anyone… other than our readers. We owe YOU the truth. We owe YOU the facts that others won’t reveal about topics that others won’t tackle. And we owe America, this great land that allows us to take hold of these opportunities.

Like I said, I don’t hold other conservative sites under too much scrutiny over their choices. It’s easy for people to point fingers when we’re not the ones paying their bills or supporting their families. I just wish there were more who would make the bold move. Today, only a handful of other major conservative news outlets have broken free from the Big Tech teat. Of course, we need help.

Our network is currently comprised of nine sites:

We are also building partnerships with great conservative sites like The Liberty Daily and The Epoch Times to advance the message as loudly as possible, and we’re always looking for others with which to partner.

Some of our content is spread across multiple sites. Other pieces of content are unique. We write most of what we post but we also draw from those willing to allow us to share their quality articles, videos, and podcasts. We collect the best content from fellow conservative sites that give us permission to republish them. We’re not ego-driven; I’d much rather post a properly attributed story written by experts like Dr. Joseph Mercola or Natural News than rewrite it like so many outlets like to do. We’re not here to take credit. We’re here to spread the truth.

While donations are the best way to help, you can also support us by buying through our sponsors:

MyPillow: Use promo code “NOQ” to get up to 66% off AND you’ll be helping a patriotic, America First company.
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MyPatriotSupply: Stock up on long-term food, survival gear, and other things that you’ll need just in case things don’t recover and we keep heading towards apocalypse.

We know we could make a lot more money if we sold out like so many “conservative” publications out there. You won’t find Google ads on our site for a reason. Yes, they’re lucrative, but I don’t like getting paid by minions of Satan (I don’t like Google very much if you couldn’t tell).

Time is short. As the world spirals towards The Great Reset, the need for truthful journalism has never been greater. But in these times, we need as many conservative media voices as possible. Please help keep NOQ Report and the other sites in the network going. Our promise is this: We will never sell out America. If that means we’re going to struggle for a while or even indefinitely, so be it. Integrity first. Truth first. America first.

Thank you and God Bless,
JD Rucker

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